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2. STUDY AREA CHARACTERISTICS · The Seasonal Industrial Waste Site is also located outside of the Eugene-Springfield UGB to the north on the northwestern-most portion of Eugene. The site and surrounding area are zoned as Exclusive Farm Use 30 Acre Minimum, with a port/on of the area to the south zone Rural Industrial. · The Biocycle Farm is bounded on the west by Highway 99. The facility is approximately one-third inside and two-thirds outside of the Eugene-Springfield UGB. The area of the site inside the UGB is zoned Heavy Industrial with Site Review, Urbanizable Land and Commercial Airport Safety overlay zones while the area of the site outside the UGB is zoned Rural Industrial. The area to the west of the facility across Highway 99 is the Eugene Airport zoned for Airport Operations; the area to the north includes zoning for Rural Residential 5 Acre Minimum, Rural Industrial and Exclusive Farm Use 40 Acre Minimum; the area to the east includes Rural Residential 5 Acre Minimum and Exclusive Farm Use 40 Acre Minimum zoning, and the area to the south is inside the UGB and zoned for Heavy Industrial with Urbanizable Land and Commercial Airport Safety overlay zones. 2.3 Socioeconomic Environment 2.3.1 Economic Conditions and Trends The Oregon economy experienced a "jobless recovery" through 2003. As the U.S. economy builds strength in 2004, Oregon should follow the same path. According to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), the jobless recovery will slowly become a job generating recovery, with jobs regaining their pre-recession levels in early 2005. OEA forecasts employment to grow 1.6 percent in 2004 and 2.2 percent in 2005. Table 2.3.1-1 is a summary of the forecast outlook. The table compares OEA's forecast to other published forecasts. Economy.com has the most pessimistic outlook for 2004 and 2005. OEA's forecast follows more closely the direction of the Global Insights8 forecast, but believes the recovery will be stronger although still milder compared to other recovery periods. The outer years continue to add jobs. TABLE 2.3.1-1 Oregon Total Non-Farm Employment and Personal Income Growth MWMC Facilities Plan, Eugene-Springfield Employmenl Growth Personal Income Growth Date of Forecaster Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 Economy.corn Dec. 2003 0.6 2.0 1.9 4.3 4.2 4.6 Global Insight Winter 2003-04 1.2 2.1 1.7 5.2 5.4 5.3 Wells Fargo & Co. Dec. 2003 2.2 NA NA 5.5 NA NA U.S. Bank Dec. 2003 2.5 NA NA 5.5 NA NA 8 Global Insights is a consulting firm that provides business and economic forecasts, industry analysis, strategic consulting, financial data and software. MWMC_2.0_REV23.DOC 2-29