Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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Recommendations for Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest April 2009 Page 4 Employment growth Employment growth is the amount of growth in jobs reasonably expected in Eugene over the 2010 to 2030 period. Changes in the forecast of employment growth directly result in changes in need for employment land. There is no single “right” way to forecast employment growth. There are, however, two methods for forecasting employment growth that, independent of their technical merits, are legally sanctioned as “safe harbors”: (1) assume that employment will grow at the same rate as population (OAR 660-024-0040(8)((a)(ii)), or (2) assume that employment will grow at the same rate as the Employment Department’s forecast for Lane County. ? Potential range of assumption: Assuming that employment will grow at the same rate as population (a 1.0% annual growth) results in addition of about 27,000 jobs. Assuming that employment in Eugene will grow at the same rate 2 as the one used in the Employment Department’s forecast for Lane County (a 1.4% annual growth rate) results in the addition of about 40,000 jobs. ? CAC and TAC discussion: Several CAC and TAC members said the assumption that Eugene’s employment will grow at the rate forecasted for Lane County (1.4% annual growth) is reasonable, and probably the more reasonable of the two growth rates. Eugene is the central city and employment center of the region: it is reasonable to expect employment to grow faster than population. On the other hand, a difference in growth rates suggests greater commuting to Eugene from outlying cities (e.g., Veneta). ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend assuming 1.4% annual employment growth, based on: (1) the assumption that Eugene is the regional economic center of Lane County and likely to have the greatest employment growth, and (2) average employment growth in Lane County over the 1980 to 2007 was 1.7% average annual growth. ? Data source: The employment base is a point estimate for 2006 based on: Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce from the OR Employment Department and Total Employment in Lane County from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Distribution of employment by land-use type The forecast of employment growth can be divided into broad categories of land use based on the characteristics of land needed: commercial, retail, industrial, and The City has requested that Lane County adopt a population forecast based on the safe harbor in OAR 660-024- 2 0030, which allows a city to adopt a 20-year population forecast based on the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ (OEA) long-term population forecast for the County. This forecast assumes that Eugene’s population will grow at approximately 1.0% annually between 2010 and 2030.