Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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Recommendations for Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest April 2009 Page 5 government. In 2006, the share of employment in each of these categories was: 54.3% commercial, 13.1% retail, 18.2% industrial, and 14.4% government. ? Potential range of assumption: There is no “correct” way to forecast the future composition of Eugene’s economy. Possible approaches are: Assume the future composition of Eugene’s economy will look like the o present and use the existing distribution of employment by land-use type; Assume that employment in non-industrial sectors will grow more than o employment in industrial based on County, State, and national historical trends. An example of the shift in the mix: 55% commercial, 15% retail, 15% industrial, and 15% government; or Use the mix of employment forecast in the Employment Department’s o forecast for Lane County: 46% commercial, 13% retail, 23% industrial, and 18% government. ? CAC discussion: Some CAC members said that the current mix of employment seems more likely to continue into the future than the mix in the Employment Department’s forecast for Lane County. ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend assuming that the future mix of employment will be similar to or the same as the current mix of employment. The mix of employment forecasted by the Employment Department for Lane County, with greater growth in industrial sectors and decrease in share of commercial sectors, seems unlikely given long- term economic trends and recent economic trends in Eugene and Lane County. ? Data source: The employment base is a point estimate for 2006 based on: Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce from the OR Employment Department and Total Employment in Lane County from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. New employment accommodated on land not designated for employment Some employment is now accommodated on land that is located in a residential or other non-employment plan designation. In 2006, about 15% of covered employment (“covered employment” means employment that the state tracks because it is covered by unemployment insurance and reported; covered employment was about 75% of total employment in 2006) was located in residential and other non-employment designations. This includes businesses located in non-employment plan designations (such as a corner store in a neighborhood) and people working from home. This estimate may be slightly low because it is based on covered employment, which excludes sole proprietors (who may be more likely to work from home and therefore in areas with non-employment plan designations).