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Recommendations for Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest April 2009 Page 9 <br />2.2 R: <br />ESIDENTIAL LAND NEED KEY ASSUMPTIONS <br />The analysis of residential land need is driven by an analysis of housing need. The <br />housing needs analysis must meet the State requirements of Goal 10, ORS 197.296, and <br />OAR 600-008. The framework for conducting the housing needs analysis is described in <br />detail in the memorandum to the CAC “Framework for Determining Land Needed for <br />Housing in Eugene: 2010-2030” (February 5, 2009). This section discusses the key <br />assumptions necessary for determining the amount of land needed for housing over the <br />20-year planning period. <br />Population growth <br />A 20-year population forecast (in this instance, 2010 to 2030) is the foundation for <br />estimating needed new dwelling units. On June 25, 2008, the City of Eugene requested a <br />safe harbor forecast from Lane County. The forecast was based on the safe harbor in <br />OAR 660-024-0030, which allows a city to adopt a 20-year population forecast based on <br />the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ (OEA) long-term population forecast for the <br />County, assuming that the city’s share of the forecasted county population will be the <br />same as the urban area's current share of county population. In other words, the safe <br />harbor allows the City to assume that it will grow at the same rate as the OEA <br />forecasted that the County will grow. <br />The safe harbor forecast assumes that population inside the Eugene UGB will grow <br />from 176,582 people in 2007 to 221,515 people in 2030. The forecast projects that <br />population in the UGB will grow by 39,633 people between 2010 and 2030. <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: Lane County is in the process of developing <br /> <br />coordinated population forecasts for the cities in the County. The County’s <br />population forecast may present other assumptions about population growth <br />in Eugene but the County’s forecast is not expected to be completed until this <br />summer. <br />? <br />CAC and TAC discussion: CAC and TAC have not discussed this assumption <br /> <br />in great enough depth to have suggestions for different assumptions from <br />more than one committee member. <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />using the requested safe harbor population forecast for Eugene. <br />? <br />Data source: Letter to the Lane County Board of Commissioners from the cities <br /> <br />of Eugene and Springfield, “Request for Adoption of Alternative Population <br />Forecast for Eugene and Springfield,” June 25, 2008. <br />Population in group quarters <br />Persons in group quarters do not consume standard housing units: thus, any forecast <br />of new people in group quarters is typically backed out of the population forecast for <br /> <br /> <br />