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Recommendations for Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest April 2009 Page 10 <br />the purpose of estimating housing demand. Group quarters can have a big influence on <br />housing in cities with colleges (dorms), prisons, or a large elderly population (nursing <br />homes). In general, any new requirements for these housing types will be met by <br />institutions (colleges, government agencies, health-care corporations) operating outside <br />what is typically defined as the housing market. Group quarters, however, require land <br />and are typically built at densities that are comparable to multiple-family dwellings. <br />The U.S. Census tracks the number of people in group quarters. The share of Eugene’s <br />population living in group quarters was 5.5% in 1990, 4.4% in 2000, and 5.3% in 2007. <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: The U.S. Census’ range of people in group <br /> <br />households (between 4.4% to 5.5% of population) is a reasonable range for this <br />assumption. The aging of the population may result in an increase in share of <br />seniors living in group housing but trends in senior housing (away from <br />nursing homes and towards assisted living) may hold the share of population <br />in group quarters within the range reported by the Census. <br />? <br />CAC and TAC discussion: CAC and TAC have not discussed this assumption <br /> <br />in great enough depth to have suggestions for different assumptions. <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />assuming that 5.3% of Eugene’s 2030 population (2,180 people) will live in <br />group quarters. <br />? <br />Data source: The assumption about population in group quarters is based on a <br /> <br />point estimate from the U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2007. <br />Persons per household <br />In 1990, traditional families (married couple, with one or more children at home) <br />accounted for 25% of all households in Oregon. In 2007 that percentage had dropped to <br />20%. Consistent with that trend, the average household size has decreased over the past <br />five decades and is likely to continue decreasing. The average household size in Oregon <br />was 2.60 in 1980, 2.52 in 1990, and 2.51 in 2000 and 2.49 in 2007. One and two person <br />households made up the majority of Oregon households in 1990. The direct impact of <br />decreasing household size on housing demand is that smaller households means more <br />households, which means a need for more housing units even if population were not <br />growing. <br />Average household size in Eugene followed the same pattern as the State: household <br />sizes have decreased. In 1990, the average household had 2.30 persons per household, <br />dropping to 2.27 in 2000, and 2.25 persons per household in 2007. OAR 660-024 <br />established a “safe harbor” assumption for average household size—which is the figure <br />from the most recent Census. <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: We could assume that household sizes will <br /> <br />continue to decrease or we could use the safe harbor and assume that <br /> <br /> <br />