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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 14 <br />Table 3. Residential land need based on historical <br />trends, Eugene UGB, 2010-2030 <br />Historical Data <br />Housing Housing <br />Mix 2001-Mix in <br />20082007 <br />Variable <br />Population growth34,00834,008 <br />Population in Group Quarters1,8701,870 <br />Population in Households32,13832,138 <br />Avg HH Size2.252.25 <br />Occupied Dwellings14,28314,283 <br />Vacancy rate5.0%5.0% <br />Total Needed Dwellings14,99814,998 <br />Housing mix <br />Single-family detached64%55% <br />Manufactured home in park5%6% <br />Duplex3%3% <br />Single-family attached10%7% <br />Tri- and Quad-plex (3 or 4 units)3%7% <br />Apartments with 5 to 19 units8%12% <br />Apartments with 20 or more units7%10% <br />Average Density (DU/gross ac) <br />Low Density Residential4.24.1 <br />Medium Density Residential8.57.6 <br />High Density Residential25.623.8 <br />Average5.35.5 <br />Land Need Accomodated through Infill and Redevelopment <br />Low Density Residential11%11% <br />Medium Density Residential11%11% <br />High Density Residential11%11% <br />Total Land Needed for Housing (acres) <br />Low Density Residential2,1421,944 <br />Medium Density Residential284355 <br />High Density Residential76112 <br />Total Gross Acres Needed 2,502 2,411 <br />Difference from Historical Trend0(91) <br />Percent Change from Historical <br />0%-4% <br /> <br />Source: ECONorthwest <br />Note: The housing density for the variation using the housing mix for residential development <br /> over the 2001 to 2008 period is slightly higher for development in the LDR and MDR designations <br /> than the variation using the housing mix for all housing in 2007. <br />The reason the density is higher using the 2001-2008 mix is that mix assumes that there will be <br />more single-family attached units, which have comparatively high historical densities, <br />and fewer tri- and quad-plex units, which have comparatively low historical densities. <br />The result is that the average density in the LDR and MDR is higher when using the 2001 to 2008 mix. <br />The overall average density for all housing is lower when using the 2001 to 2008 mix. <br />The baseline assumptions in the residential land need estimate in Table 3 are <br />described below. <br /> <br /> <br />