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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 15 <br />Population growth <br />A 20-year population forecast (in this instance, 2010 to 2030) is the foundation for <br />estimating needed new dwelling units. On June 17, 2009, Lane County adopted a new <br />coordinated population forecast for this period. The city will be initiating a Metro Plan <br />Amendment process to formally adopt this forecast for use in all future planning <br />efforts. The forecast projects that population inside the Eugene UGB will grow from <br />177,775 people in 2010 to 211,783 people in 2030, an increase of 34,008 people between <br />2010 and 2030. <br />9 <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: The adopted Lane County population forecast <br /> <br />is the only assumption about population growth currently under consideration <br />in ECLA. <br />? <br />CAC and TAC discussion: CAC and TAC were not asked for different <br /> <br />assumptions about population growth because this is a policy decision based <br />on the Lane County coordinated population forecast, which the City Council is <br />expected to adopt. <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />using the Lane County population forecast for Eugene. <br />? <br />Data source: Lane County adopted coordinated population forecast, <br /> Lane <br />, updated June 2009. <br />County Rural Comprehensive Plan <br />Population in group quarters <br />Persons in group quarters do not consume standard housing units: thus, any forecast <br />of new people in group quarters is typically backed out of the population forecast for <br />the purpose of estimating housing demand. Group quarters can have a big influence on <br />housing in cities with colleges (dorms), prisons, or a large elderly population (nursing <br />homes). In general, any new requirements for these housing types will be met by <br />institutions (colleges, government agencies, health-care corporations) operating outside <br />what is typically defined as the housing market. Group quarters, however, require land <br />and are typically built at densities that are comparable to multiple-family dwellings. <br />The U.S. Census tracks the number of people in group quarters. The share of Eugene’s <br />population living in group quarters was 5.5% in 1990, 4.4% in 2000, and 5.3% in 2007. <br />One of the factors that will affect the amount of Eugene’s population housed in group <br />quarters is enrollment growth at the University of Oregon and the University’s <br />provision of dormitory space. The University projects growth of about 3,700 students <br /> <br /> <br /> The population forecast is from Table 1.1 in the revised <br />Lane County Rural Comprehensive Plan General Plan Policies <br />9 <br />, updated June 2009. <br />1984 <br /> <br /> <br />