Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 18 continued growth in this type of housing could increase average household size slightly across the City. The result of increased household size would be an decrease in the number of new dwelling units needed to accommodate Eugene’s expected population growth. ? CAC and TAC discussion: Some CAC members think that we should assume that household sizes will change in the future. CAC members have expressed concern at development of buildings with more than the usual number of bedrooms (five or six bedrooms) in the same dwelling unit. This creates higher than normal persons per household in the neighborhoods with this type of development, which creates other policy challenges for these neighborhoods (e.g., parking availability). The housing needs analysis will discuss this trend. ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend using the safe harbor assumption that household sizes will remain at 2.25 persons per household. Forecasting future household sizes requires considering a number of demographic and social shifts that are complex: continued aging of the population, changes in ethnicity, and changes in student housing preferences. The differences across the City over a 20 year period will be relatively small. ? Data source: The assumption about household size is based on a point in time estimate based on 2007 U.S. Census, American Community Survey, data. Residential vacancies Housing vacancy rates are cyclical. Low vacancy rates signal an excess of demand relative to supply, which brings new construction and, eventually, higher vacancy rates. Vacancy rates for rental and multiple family units are typically higher than those for owner-occupied and single-family dwelling units. In 1990 the Census reported a vacancy rate for all housing of 3.6%, increasing to 5.4% in 2000, and 6.3% in 2007. While it may appear that Eugene’s vacancy rate has increased over the 1990 to 2007, Eugene’s vacancy rate has probably fluctuated throughout each year. The Census’ vacancy rate data is accurate for the date of the Census (April 1) but the vacancy rate may change significantly throughout the year based on activities at the University of Oregon. For example, Eugene may have a higher vacancy rate in July, when most students have left town, and a lower vacancy rate in October, with the start of the University’s school year. Since state law and this project requires a 20-year forecast, and one should expect several housing cycles during that period, this project should be looking for an average vacancy rate (the “natural” rate of vacancy). OAR 660-024 established a “safe harbor” assumption for average residential vacancies—which is the figure from the most recent Census.