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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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6/9/2010 1:18:49 PM
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7/17/2009 11:16:06 AM
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Agenda Item Summary
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7/22/2009
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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 17 <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />assuming that 5.3% of Eugene’s 2030 population (1,870 people) will live in <br />group quarters. <br />? <br />Data source: The assumption about population in group quarters is based on <br /> <br />the share of Eugene’s population in group quarters in 2007 according to the <br />U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2007. This assumption considers <br />long-term trends in share of population in group quarters in 1990, 2000, and <br />2007, based on U.S. Census data in those years. <br />Persons per household <br />In 1990, traditional families (married couple, with one or more children at home) <br />accounted for 25% of all households in Oregon. In 2007 that percentage had dropped to <br />20%. Consistent with that trend, the average household size has decreased over the past <br />five decades and is likely to continue decreasing. The average household size in Oregon <br />was 2.60 in 1980, 2.52 in 1990, and 2.51 in 2000 and 2.49 in 2007. One and two person <br />households made up the majority of Oregon households in 1990. The direct impact of <br />decreasing household size on housing demand is that smaller households means more <br />households, which means a need for more housing units even if population were not <br />growing. <br />Average household size in Eugene followed the same pattern as the State: household <br />sizes have decreased. In 1990, the average household had 2.30 persons per household, <br />dropping to 2.27 in 2000, and 2.25 persons per household in 2007. OAR 660-024 <br />established a “safe harbor” assumption for average household size—which is the figure <br />from the most recent Census. <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: We could assume that household sizes will <br /> <br />change over the planning period or we could use the safe harbor and assume <br />that household sizes will continue at 2.25 persons per household. <br />The historical change in household size in Eugene over the last quarter- <br />century is a relatively slow decrease: from 1980 to 2007 the average annual rate <br />of decrease was on the order of 1/10 of 1% per year. If Eugene’s household <br />th <br />size continues to decrease, Eugene will need more dwelling units than the <br />current forecast projects to accommodate Eugene’s expected population <br />growth. <br />Trends in student housing suggest that Eugene’s household size may increase <br />slightly over the planning period. One type of student housing that has been <br />built more frequently in Eugene are large units with five or more bedrooms <br />and shared common space and kitchen facilities. These dwellings are most <br />common in neighborhoods near the University and may have five or more <br />students living in them. While it seems that the market for this type of housing <br />is limited by student housing demand and student housing preferences, <br /> <br /> <br />
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