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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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7/22/2009
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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 25 <br />issues with and merits of different methodologies. After evaluating different <br />approaches projecting future redevelopment rates and discussing this issue with the <br />CAC at several meetings, City staff directed the consultants to proceed as follows <br />regarding redevelopment: <br />1.Treat “infill” as a subset of “redevelopment.” <br /> <br />2.Measure the combined amount of historical redevelopment using the methods <br /> <br />described in Appendix C. In summary, use data from LCOG’s address file to <br />estimate the number of new residential addresses that were added between 2001 <br />and 2008 to tax lots identified as developed in 2001. There are some assumptions <br />we will have to make to do that, but they are explainable and defensible. LCOG <br />believes that the address file is very accurate and that this method of estimating <br />redevelopment makes sense. We (ECO) believe that this will be the first study to <br />have used this advanced method, that it will give accurate results, and that it will <br />be the best information available in any study of this type about the actual <br />amount of residential redevelopment (as defined by state rules) that occurred <br />over a specific, identified period. <br />3.Use the estimate of the amount of historical redevelopment to create a rate that <br /> <br />can be used as a baseline forecast for estimating future redevelopment. For <br />example, if 800 new dwelling units (as identified by new residential addresses) <br />were added over an eight-year period (2001 to 2008, inclusive), then <br />redevelopment accounted, historically for an average of 100 dwelling units per <br />year; if that rate is used for the baseline forecast, then about 2,000 new dwelling <br />units will be built on developed land over the 20-year planning period. <br />4.Subtract the units estimated to be provided via redevelopment during the <br /> <br />planning period (in the example above, 2,000 dwelling units) from the total <br />needed (based on calculations described earlier in the memorandum) to get an <br />estimate of <br />the number of new dwelling units that will be built during the 20-year <br />. <br />planning period on land defined as “vacant” in the LCOG BLI <br />The next section describes results of our implementation of the first two sets, and the <br />resulting estimate of the historical rate of redevelopment. <br />Results <br />Historical residential redevelopment includes lots that had addresses coded before <br />2001 and received additional addresses after 2001. ECO used the following criteria to <br />identify residential redevelopment: (1) lots that had one or more address prior to 2001; <br />and (2) lots that had additional addresses on the lot after 2001. Plan designation and <br />zoning were not used as selection criteria. Rather, new residential units were identified <br />by land use categories and improvement type. This methodology is consistent with the <br />definition of redevelopment presented in the previous section. <br /> <br /> <br />
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