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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 4 <br />2 B <br />ASELINE ASSUMPTIONS <br />In previous meetings and memoranda, ECONorthwest described the assumptions <br />that are needed to model land need for the Eugene UGB over the 2010-2030 periods. <br />Table 1 lists these assumptions; underlining denotes what ECONorthwest believes to be <br />a key assumption. Key assumptions are those that (1) potentially have a large impact on <br />land needs, and (2) are most likely to be affected by City policies. Subsequent sections of <br />this memorandum provide information about baseline assumptions as they relate to <br />historical data. <br />Table 1. Baseline assumptions for modeling land need <br />Residential land needs <br />Employment land Public and Semi-Public <br />needs Land Needs <br />Population growth <br />Employment growth Park Land <br />Population in group <br />Neighborhood Parks <br />quarters <br />Share of employment by <br />Community Parks <br />category <br />Persons in household <br />Natural Areas <br />Industrial <br />Residential vacancy rate <br />Other Parks <br />Commercial <br />Housing mix <br />Retail Schools <br />Housing density <br />Government 4J School District <br />Net to Gross Factor <br />Bethel School District <br />New employment in non- <br />Residential redevelopment <br />Public Operations and <br />employment PD <br />Facilities <br />New employment in <br />Semi-public uses <br />existing built space <br /> <br />Commercial <br />Redevelopment <br />Employment Density <br />Net to Gross Factor <br />2.1 E:B <br />MPLOYMENT LAND NEED ASELINE ASSUMPTIONS <br />The analysis of employment land need is driven by an analysis of employment <br />growth, Eugene’s competitive advantages, the types of firms that may locate in Eugene, <br />and the site needs of the firms that may locate in Eugene. The employment land need <br />must meet the State requirements of Goal 9 and OAR 600-009. The framework for <br />conducting the employment needs analysis is described in detail in the memorandum <br />to the CAC “Framework for Determining Land Needed for Employment in Eugene: <br />2010-2030” (January 5, 2009). This section discusses the baseline assumptions necessary <br />for determining the amount of land needed for employment over the 20-year planning <br />period. <br />Table 2 summarizes the evaluation of employment land need based on historical data <br />and the rate of employment growth. The key assumption regarding the need for <br />employment land is the forecast of the amount of employment growth, excluding <br /> <br /> <br />