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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 5 <br />government employment growth (which is addressed through public land needs). <br />Table 2 shows two columns of numbers for two different assumptions about the rate of <br />employment growth. Those assumptions are discussed below. Employment land needs <br />ranges from 598 to 887 acres. <br />Table 2. Employment land need based on historical data, <br />Eugene UGB, 2010-2030, for different assumptions about <br />average annual growth rates (AAGR) <br />Slower <br />Historical Emp. <br />DataGrowth <br />1.4% 0.9% <br />AAGRAAGR <br />Variable <br />Employment Forecast <br />Total Employment Growth 34,477 20,360 <br />Increases in Employment Density <br />% of new emp. accomodated on land not designated for employment <br />Industrial0%0 <br />Commercial15%15% <br />Retail15%15% <br />% of new employment accomodated in existing built space <br />Industrial10%10% <br />Commercial10%10% <br />Retail10%10% <br />% of new employment accomodated through infill & redevelopment <br />Industrial10%10% <br />Commercial15%15% <br />Retail35%35% <br />Total Employment on New Land 21,096 12,457 <br />Number employees not requiring new land(13,381)(7,902) <br />% employees not requiring new land-39%-39% <br />Employment Density (employees per net acre) <br />Industrial1313 <br />Commercial6868 <br />Retail2323 <br />Net to Gross <br />Industrial15%15% <br />Commercial20%20% <br />Retail20%20% <br />Land Need (Gross Acres) <br />Industrial 531 313 <br />Commercial 241 142 <br />Retail 115 68 <br />Total Gross Acres Needed 887 524 <br />Difference from Historical Trend0(363) <br />Percent Change from Historical0%-41% <br /> <br />Source: ECONorthwest <br />Note: We excluded government employment growth from the calculations in Table 2 because <br />government land need is accommodated through public and semi-public land needs. <br />Note: Numbers in red and parentheses are negative. <br /> <br /> <br />