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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 7 <br />Lane County (1.4% annual growth) is reasonable, and probably the more <br />reasonable of the two growth rates. Eugene is the central city and employment <br />center of the region: it is reasonable to expect employment to grow faster than <br />population. On the other hand, a difference in growth rates suggests greater <br />commuting to Eugene from outlying cities (e.g., Veneta). <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />assuming 1.4% annual employment growth, based on: (1) the assumption that <br />Eugene is the regional economic center of Lane County and likely to have the <br />greatest employment growth, and (2) average employment growth in Lane <br />County over the 1980 to 2007 was 1.7% average annual growth. <br />? <br />Data source: The employment base is a point in time estimate for 2006 based <br /> <br />on: Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce from the OR <br />Employment Department and Total Employment in Lane County from the US <br />Bureau of Economic Analysis. <br />Distribution of employment by land-use type <br />The forecast of employment growth can be divided into broad categories of land use <br />based on the characteristics of land needed: commercial office, commercial retail, <br />industrial, and government. In 2006, the share of employment in each of these <br />categories was: 54.3% commercial, 13.1% retail, 18.2% industrial, and 14.4% <br />government. <br />4 <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: There is no “correct” way to forecast the future <br /> <br />composition of Eugene’s economy. Possible approaches are: <br />Assume the future composition of Eugene’s economy will look like the <br /> <br />o <br />present and use the existing distribution of employment by land-use <br />type; <br />Assume that employment in non-industrial sectors will grow more than <br /> <br />o <br />employment in industrial based on County, State, and national <br />historical trends. An example of the shift in the mix: 55% commercial, <br />15% retail, 15% industrial, and 15% government; or <br />Use the mix of employment forecast in the Employment Department’s <br /> <br />o <br />forecast for Lane County: 46% commercial, 13% retail, 23% industrial, <br />and 18% government. <br />? <br />CAC discussion: Some CAC members said that the current mix of employment <br /> <br />seems more likely to continue into the future than the mix in the Employment <br />Department’s forecast for Lane County. <br /> <br /> <br /> Growth in government employment is accounted for through the public and semi-public land needs process, <br />4 <br />rather than through the employment land needs analysis. <br /> <br /> <br />