Item A: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 8 ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend assuming that the future mix of employment will be similar to or the same as the current mix of employment. The mix of employment forecasted by the Employment Department for Lane County, with greater growth in industrial sectors and decrease in share of commercial sectors, seems unlikely given long- term economic trends and recent economic trends in Eugene and Lane County. Note that the effect of this assumption is diminished to some degree by the fact that the of employment does not change—the changes. amountcomposition Thus, the same number of employees will need built space to work in, which will need land be constructed. The difference is that the density of employment growth will be different for some types of development. But the differences in density among commercial office, retail, and government are relatively small, so shifting among those has little impact on land need. The bigger effect comes from shifts between those categories and industrial, which has lower density. ? Data source: The employment base is a point in time estimate for 2006 based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce from the OR Employment Department and Total Employment in Lane County from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. New employment accommodated on land not designated for employment Some employment is now accommodated on land that is located in a residential or other non-employment plan designation. In 2006, about 15% of covered employment 5 was located in residential and other non-employment designations. This includes businesses located in non-employment plan designations (such as a corner store in a neighborhood) and people working from home. This estimate excludes workers that are not covered by unemployment insurance, such as sole proprietors. Although these workers may be more likely than covered employees to locate on land with non- employment designation, we do not have information about where non-covered workers are located. In the absence of this information, we assumed that covered and non-covered workers will locate on land in non-employment plan designations in the same proportions and that 15% of all employment will locate on land in non- employment plan designations. ? Potential range of assumption: There is little information available about the amount of employment accommodated on land not designated for employment in Eugene, beyond the data reported above. In work for other employment is employment that the state tracks because it is covered by unemployment insurance and Covered 5 reported. Covered employment information is available at the city-level. employment, which includes all Total employment, is tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not available at the city-level. Comparison of covered and total employment in Lane County showed that covered employment was 75% of total employment in the County in 2006.Covered employment excludes sole proprietors and other workers not covered by unemployment insurance.