Item A: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 25 issues with and merits of different methodologies. After evaluating different approaches projecting future redevelopment rates and discussing this issue with the CAC at several meetings, City staff directed the consultants to proceed as follows regarding redevelopment: 1.Treat “infill” as a subset of “redevelopment.” 2.Measure the combined amount of historical redevelopment using the methods described in Appendix C. In summary, use data from LCOG’s address file to estimate the number of new residential addresses that were added between 2001 and 2008 to tax lots identified as developed in 2001. There are some assumptions we will have to make to do that, but they are explainable and defensible. LCOG believes that the address file is very accurate and that this method of estimating redevelopment makes sense. We (ECO) believe that this will be the first study to have used this advanced method, that it will give accurate results, and that it will be the best information available in any study of this type about the actual amount of residential redevelopment (as defined by state rules) that occurred over a specific, identified period. 3.Use the estimate of the amount of historical redevelopment to create a rate that can be used as a baseline forecast for estimating future redevelopment. For example, if 800 new dwelling units (as identified by new residential addresses) were added over an eight-year period (2001 to 2008, inclusive), then redevelopment accounted, historically for an average of 100 dwelling units per year; if that rate is used for the baseline forecast, then about 2,000 new dwelling units will be built on developed land over the 20-year planning period. 4.Subtract the units estimated to be provided via redevelopment during the planning period (in the example above, 2,000 dwelling units) from the total needed (based on calculations described earlier in the memorandum) to get an estimate of the number of new dwelling units that will be built during the 20-year . planning period on land defined as “vacant” in the LCOG BLI The next section describes results of our implementation of the first two sets, and the resulting estimate of the historical rate of redevelopment. Results Historical residential redevelopment includes lots that had addresses coded before 2001 and received additional addresses after 2001. ECO used the following criteria to identify residential redevelopment: (1) lots that had one or more address prior to 2001; and (2) lots that had additional addresses on the lot after 2001. Plan designation and zoning were not used as selection criteria. Rather, new residential units were identified by land use categories and improvement type. This methodology is consistent with the definition of redevelopment presented in the previous section.