Ordinance No. 20437 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

ATTACHMENT 5 — Findings in Support of Ordinance No. PA 1255 Lane County Coordinated Population Forecast Portland State University, Population Research Center Rural Comprehensive Plan Adoption 2. 0 !ll 5. 21 7. Erbihit B Population Forecasts for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035 (May 2009) was prepared by the Population Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs at Portland State University (PSU) over a period of time from August 2008 to May 2009. The Population Research Center produced long-term population forecasts for the County, the two largest cities of Eugene and Springfield, the shared Eugene - Springfield urban growth boundary area (UGB), the UGB areas for the County's remaining 10 cities, and for the unincorporated area outside the UGB-. The forecast horizon extends 27 years from 2008 to 2035, and the forecasts are produced in 5 -year intervals between 2010 and 2035. The County will use the forecasts to coordinate revisions of the comprehensive plans for each of these areas. The projections are benchmaiked to the Population Research Center's 2008 certified population estimates for the city and county populations. In 2008, Lane County's population was 345,880. The Eugene- Springfield UGB represents 70 percent of the county's population and that percentage does not change much during the forecast period. The 2008 population estimates for lane County's ten smaller cities are all under 10,000, ranging from 340 to 9,830 persons. These cities capture population increases from about 13 percent to over 18 percent throughout the forecast period. The share of the population that the non -UGB unincorporated area represents -decreases from about 17 percent to 12 percent This shift of persons residing in rural 'areas to more urbanized areas is a common trend throughout Oregon and the United States that has been ongoing for many years. Data used to develop the forecasts include vital statistics; population, land uso, building permit, and employment data; and school enrollments for districts within Lane County. Several diffirent demographic methods and models were employed to prepare the forecasts, including the development of cohort- component models far the County and larger areas, 'and'housing unit models for each of the county's smaller cities and the non -UGB unincorporated area. The cohort- component model incorporates rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. The housing unit model assumes a number of future added housing units, levels af.housing occupancy, and averages of the number of persons per household. Consideration was given to factors that influence Lane County's population dynamics, namely the population's ethnic and age composition, the number of annual births that occur, employment and commuting patterns, the number of building permits issued, and public school enrollment in the county's school districts. Fht am trends in the forecasts for the County and its sub -areas each suggest that there will be continuing increases in population, but at slightly decreasing rates from the beginning to the end of the forecast period. Ordinance No. PA 1255 Exhibit "B" Findings ATTACHMENT �a`�