Ordinance No. 20437 - Laserfiche WebLink

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ATTACHMENT 5 - S. The downturn of the local economy is forecast to be more severe than that seen in the early 2000's and to not recover until the 2010's. Therefore, housing construction is forecast to be sluggish for a few years in most areas, but will accelerate after 2015. At that time the net in- migration of families with children, the elderly, and Hispanics is predicted to increase and continue throughout most of the forecast period. 9. The sub -areas in this study at times are called `cities' but are actually city urban areas, which refer to the area within the city limits combined with its corresponding UGB area outside city limits; or in other words, all of the area within the small city urban growth boundaries. 10. The PSU forecasts for Eugene and Springfield cities are for the:individual cities without the unincorporated UGB area, because they share a single UGB under the current Metro Plan boundary. The Eugene - Springfield UGB population estimated for each of the areas east and west of I -5 separately is forecast to follow current percentages, which is 72 percent for Eugene and 28 percent for Springfield. The share of the Eugene Springfield UGB will continue to be stable at around 70 percent of the county whole, with a slight increase during the forecast period. 1 L The unincorporated area of Lane County refers to the area outside of any city and UGB. This area is known as the `non -UGB unincorporated area' in the PSU Report, Population Forecasts for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008 -2035 (May 2009). 12. Five of Lane County's cities, Lowell, Veneta, Dunes City, Coburg, and Westfir, either have a UGB that is identical, or nearly identical, to their city boundary. 13'. The other cities have a UGB outside their city limits where a portion of the city area's housing stock is located. Twenty-one percent of Florence's housing units are in its unincorporated UGB area. The percentage of housing that is located in the Eugene- Springfield and the Junction City unincorporated UGB areas is around 12 percent, and represents over 12,000 and over 300 housing units, respectively. The cities of Oakridge, Creswell, and Cottage Grove each have a UGB where between 3 and 6 percent of the housing units (in a range between 50 and 200 units) are located. 14. The annual certified population estimates from the U: S. Census represenf•the area within the city limits. If a city does not send annual housing and population data to the estimates program, its certified estimate is held constant to the previous year and may not account for recent changes. The population figures presented in the report Population Forecasts for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008-2035 (May 2009), represent the 2008 certified estimates adjusted to incorporate the city UGB areas. Population forecasts for 2010 and beyond account for fluctuations in annual data that may have affected the previous data. 15. The 2010 -1040 population forecast for Lane County produced by Oregon's Office -of Economic Analysis (OEA) is used to gauge the Lane County forecast results. While the published OEA forecast currently available was produced in 2004, OEA is currently revising the forecast The Population Research Center works closely with OEA and had access to information regarding those revisions during the Lane County Population Forecast effort. Consequently, results reported for Lane County by the PSU report are very close to OEA's preliminary forecast, but slightly lower in the early part of the forecast period, and slightly higher toward the end of the period. The differences vary by no more than 2,700, or less than one percent, in any 5 -year time period. OrdinanocNo. PA 1255 Bxbibit °B" Findings ATTACHMENT 6`2?,_