Ordinance No. 20437 - Laserfiche WebLink

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ATTACHMENT 5 - 22. Migration rates are a more difficult demographic factor to estimate than the other factors, yet they remain a main factor affecting population changes in Lane County. Around three fourths of population growth in the County since 2000 is attributed to net migration (movers in minus movers out). The final projected net migration used in the forecast is a hybrid of the demographic method, time series, and economic growth analysis methods. Net migration was negative in the 1980s, and was about 10,000 residents (meaning 10,000 more persons moved out of Lane County than moved ink or 3.5 percent of total population. Net migration was positive in the 1990s, about 30,000 residents, or about 11 percent of the total population. The negative net migration in the 1980s was marked by Oregon's most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, while the large positive net migration in the 1990s was more prosperous, with strong job growth. From 2000 to 2008, population growth in Lane County due to net migration was estimated to be around six to seven percent Positive net migration was seen despite downturns in the economy in the first few years of the decade. The highest job increase since at least 2000 occurred in 2005, however, the economy was showing signs of weakening again in 2007 and hasn't yet recovered. Still, evidence continues to show signs of a positive in -flow of net migrates to Lane County. Net migration will be lower in the 2000s than in the 1990s and the downturn is expected to continue over the next few years. Net in- migration will regain vitality after 2015, however, due to an economic recovery. Due to the relatively larger population base that has been increasing since at least 1990, total net migration in the 2010s is projected to be slightly higher than in 1990 although it will be at lower rates. Net in- migration will accelerate some and will gain momentum until around,2030 when the magnitude lessens a bit 23. All population forecasts are based on a combination of a beginning population; various known, estimated, and predicted rates; and the forecasters' expertise and knowledge about future trends. The forecasts may err through imprecise data or unexpected shifts in demographic trends. Generally, forecasts for larger geographical areas, such as the entire county are more reliable than those for small areas, such as for a small city with fewer than 1,000 persons. These forecasts will be used as a guide to population growth over the next few years, and changes in local areas will surely affect populations in some cities, resulting in the actual population deviating from the numbers shown in the adopted forecasts. The differences between the forecast and actual populations will vary in magnitude and perhaps direction. 24. The forecasts presented in the PSU report Population Forecasts for Lane County, its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2008- 2035(May 2009) meet the requirement of Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 195.036 and Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) 660- 024 -0030 which require counties in Oregon to coordinate with their cities to develop population forecasts for use by the county and cities in land -use planning activities. "The coordinating body under ORS 195.023(1) shall establish and maintain a population forecast for the entire area within its boundary for use in maintaining and updating comprehensive plans, and shall coordinate the forecast: with the local governments within its boundary. " The PSU report establishes population forecasts for all of Lane County and the urban areas within the county. The effort leading up to the report and development of the forecasts included three public meetings where city . reprwdntadves and interested parties provided testimony and spoke directly to the Ordinance No. PA 1255 Bxhlit'B" Fill& s ATTACHMENT -5-9v