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<br />Variations to the Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest October 2009 Page 4 <br />Table 1. Variations from the baseline analysis <br />Variations to the Baseline Analysis <br />Baseline <br />VariableVariation 1Variation 2Variation 3 <br />AssumptionsReasonable Range <br />Employment Land Needs <br />Employment growth1.4%0.9% to 2.1%1.4%1.4%1.4% <br />Share of Emp by Type <br /> Industrial18%15% - 23%18%18%18% <br /> Commercial54%46% - 55%54%54%54% <br /> Retail13%13% - 15%13%13%13% <br />New Employment in Non- <br />15%10% - 20%15%15%20% <br />employment PD <br />New Employment in Existing Built <br />10%5% - 20%20%20%20% <br />Space <br />Employment Redevelopment10% to 50% <br />10% <br /> Industrial10%15%15% <br />15% <br /> Commercial15%20%25% <br />35% <br /> Retail35%40%50% <br />Employment DensityVaries <br /> Industrial13 EPA5-20 EPA141416 <br /> Commercial68 EPA30-93 EPA757585 <br /> Retail23 EPA20-37 EPA252530 <br />Net to Gross for Right-of-Way20% (15%)15% - 20%20% (15%)20% (15%)15% <br />Residential Land Needs <br />Population Growth0.9%None0.9%0.9%0.9% <br />Population in Group Quarters5.3%4.4% - 5.5%5.3%5.3%5.3% <br />Persons per Household2.25Difficult to estimate2.252.252.25 <br />Residential Vacancy Rate5%3.5% - 6.5%5.0%5.0%5.0% <br />Housing mix <br /> Single-family detached61%45% - 69%50%50%50% <br /> Single-family attached7%7% - 10%10%10%10% <br /> Two to five units10%6% to 10%10%10%10% <br /> Five or more units22%18% to 35%30%30%30% <br />Housing Density7.28.78.79.4 <br />Average of <br /> Single-family detached5.45.65.66.0 <br />6.7-10.0 <br /> Single-family attached20.220.520.520.5 <br />Dwelling units per <br /> Two to four units8.611.011.012.0 <br />acre <br /> Five or more units24.125.025.030.0 <br />Residential development in <br />5%5% - 15%5%5%5% <br />commercial PD <br />Residential redevelopment8%5% to 20%8%12%16% <br />Net to Gross for Right-of-Way24%20% to 35%24%24%24% <br />Public and Semi-Public Land Needs <br />Park Land (inside the UGB)13.8 pkpN/A13.8 pkp13.8 pkp13.8 pkp <br /> Neighborhood Parks1.7 pkp1.7 pkp1.7 pkp1.7 pkp <br /> Community Parks1.5 pkp1.5 pkp1.5 pkp1.5 pkp <br /> Natural Areas3.8 pkp3.8 pkp3.8 pkp3.8 pkp <br /> Other Parks6.8 pkp6.8 pkp6.8 pkp6.8 pkp <br />SchoolsN/A <br /> 4J School District0 acres0 acres0 acres0 acres <br /> Bethel School District120 acres120 acres120 acres120 acres <br />Public Operations and Facilities100 acres100 - 230 acres100 acres100 acres100 acres <br />Semi-public uses50 acres25 - 75 acres50 acres50 acres50 acres <br /> <br />Note: The baseline assumptions are highlighted in green and the assumptions that have been varied are shown in red. <br />EPA is employees per acre. PKP is acres per thousand people. <br /> Parks, Recreation & Open SpaceComprehensive Plan (PROS) <br />The identifies a target level-of-service of 20 acres per 1,000 people, <br />including a target level-of-s <br />