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The benefit of scenario planning is that it helps address the possible circumstances of the future in advance to avoid an emergency situation. The art of scenario planning lies in blending a combination of known facts and future uncertainties to produce a range of possibilities. It has been used extensively by business and commercial organizations as well as the military. Scenario planning’s application for land use and transportation planning is a more recent trend. Scenario planning for GHG emissions reduction evaluates combinations of land use development alternatives and transportation system alternatives in order to identify a plan and actions to reduce GHG emissions. Often, these alternatives are compared to a “trend” or “business-as-usual" case to estimate the amounts of benefits that alternative courses of action would have. Scenario planning is a useful tool to plan for anticipated growth and develop strategies to optimize outcomes while comparing different choices and potential consequences. It is possible to explore how alternatives for accommodating growth could affect how people would travel, the amount of vehicle travel, and the amount of GHG emissions. The degree to which scenario planning would help reduce GHG emissions from Light Vehicle travel depends on comparisons with the base case, implementation of the alternative scenario that predicts reduced Light Vehicle emissions, monitoring the outcomes xv of implementation, and adapting the approach in future planning iterations. Coordinating our metropolitan land use and transportation planning to reduce GHG emissions has many benefits beyond helping to mitigate global climate change. These additional benefits (co-benefits) can be significant and also provide economic opportunities for Oregon businesses and communities. Individuals, families, and communities can expect to realize economic, environmental, and social benefits as well, such as: - Reducing non-productive time spent traveling long distances for goods and services. - Increasing household spending power by reducing the amount of household budgets spent on transportation. - Supporting healthy lifestyles through active transportation such as walking and biking; - Reducing the cost of public infrastructure; and - Reducing dependence upon fossil fuels as a strategy to reduce GHG emissions has the correlating benefit of reducing our dependence upon foreign sources of oil, as most GHG emissions result from the combustion of fossil fuels. The Need for Action The Task Force urges the state and MPOs to take action now, given available funding, to plan for climate change and to engage the public and stakeholders about the need to plan for climate change. While the planning process for climate change will require MPOs to build consensus on ways to address future uncertainties, short-term action is needed based on the best available technology and knowledge.Local governments can and should take many important and effective actions now that will make a significant difference. Many of these actions have other important benefits (co-benefits) that make these actions worthwhile. MPOs also can look for “low hanging fruit” opportunities to immediately reduce energy use and encourage alternative transportation. Moreover, studies and resources on transportation Page 7