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IV.Development of Alternative Land Use and Transportation Scenarios HB 2186 Charge: The task force shall study and evaluate the development of alternative land use and transportation scenarios that accommodate planned population and employment growth in those areas of the state that are served by metropolitan planning organizations while achieving a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or less that need to be reduced by 2035 in order to meet the goals stated in ORS 468A.205. The task force shall take into consideration the reductions in vehicle emissions that are likely to result by 2035 from the use of improved vehicle technologies and fuels. (Section 10(2)(a)). Scenario Planning Nationally, scenario planning is becoming an accepted tool to help communities figure out 5 ways to plan for GHG reduction. The expanded role of scenario planning reflects a growing recognition that land use and transportation patterns have a significant impact on GHG emissions, and that current land use and transportation plans will result in development and travel patterns that will increase rather than reduce GHG emissions. Scenario planning is a valuable tool because it allows communities to consider a range of possible alternative choices about land use patterns and transportation options, and evaluate their effectiveness in reducing GHG. Through scenario planning local governments and citizens can construct and test different alternatives for accommodating expected growth. In many ways, scenario planning builds on the land use planning that Oregon communities have been engaged in for the last four decades.Scenario planning adds a couple of new elements by: - Looking a bit further into the future (25 to 40 years). - Considering a broader range of alternatives for accommodating expected growth. - Considering a broader range of other policies and actions to reduce emissions from vehicle travel (e.g. increasing transit, demand management programs, land use densities and locations, and facilitating a transition to electric vehicles). While scenario planning is a necessary action, it is important to keep in mind that it is only one of many actions that are needed to achieve the state’s GHG reduction goals. State and national studies make it clear that significantly reducing GHG emissions will require a broad range of efforts: basically that we do a lot of everything. With this in mind, scenario planning is only one of the many actions that we will need to take. Nonetheless, scenario planning is a key action for several reasons: - Vehicle travel in metropolitan areas is a major and fast-growing source of GHG emissions in Oregon.ODOT estimates that metropolitan area households are responsible for approximately 56% of the state’s GHG emissions from Light Vehicles. (Figure 3) - Our other major options for reducing GHG from Light Vehicles - mostly more fuel efficient cars and low carbon fuels – won’t be enough by themselves to meet GHG 5 For example, in 2008, California adopted SB 375, directing each of its 18 metropolitan areas to conduct scenario planning for GHG reduction as they develop regional transportation plans. SB 375, directs each metropolitan area to prepare and adopt a “sustainable communities strategy” which sets forth a land use and transportation scenario adequate to meet state adopted targets for GHG emission reductions. Page 12