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2 <br />2 <br /> <br />Chapter <br />Forecasts of Aviation Demand <br /> <br />1. Introduction <br />Eugene Airport (EUG) is an active, thriving facility, with people boarding and exiting aircraft, freight <br />loading and unloading to and from aircraft, aircraft departing and arriving, and aircraft being stored and <br />serviced. Each activity is accommodated by facilities and services which are sized based on activity <br />levels. Forecasting is used to estimate potential future activity levels, by evaluating historical activity, and <br />applying projection methods. This is done so the appropriate facilities and services can be planned and <br />implemented. Forecasted activity levels affect airport capital improvement programming, funding, and <br />budgeting, as well as facilities, services, and staff. <br />The activities evaluated and forecasted in this Master Plan Update include passenger enplanements, <br />aircraft operations, based aircraft, and air cargo. Many methods of forecasting are available, and multiple <br />methods are applied to each activity. Results for each activity are compared among themselves, and with <br />Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts. Consideration is given to forecasting methods that best <br />represent reasonable expectations. The preferred forecasts are submitted to the FAA for review and <br />acceptance. Significant variation from FAA’s own forecast requires justification to be accepted by the <br />FAA. <br />The historic data range to be used in the forecasting effort is from 1997 through 2006. Activity levels are <br />forecast to 5, 10, and 20 years from the base year (2006), thus giving results for years 2011, 2016, and <br />2026. <br />2-1 <br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update <br />(February 2010) <br /> <br />