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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2
<br />3.2 Aircraft Operations Forecast – FAA TAF
<br />The FAA monitors and projects activity levels at the nation’s airports, generates estimates of future
<br />demand levels, and makes this data available in the TAF.
<br />Table 2-7
<br /> shows FAA TAF operations. The TAF projects EUG operations to increase, from 92,779 in
<br />2006, to 97,284 in 2011, 102,571 in 2016, and 112,632 in 2026, a 0.97 percent CAGR. Commercial
<br />operations are projected to increase from 24,777 in 2006, to 25,731 in 2011, to 26,961 in 2016, to 29,653
<br />in 2026, a 0.90 percent CAGR. General Aviation operations are projected to increase from 66,185 in
<br />2006, to 69,790 in 2011, to 73,847 in 2016, to 81,216 in 2026, a 1.03 percent CAGR. Military operations
<br />are projected to remain at 1,763 through 2026.
<br />One of the reasons for a positive forecast is the introduction of a new aircraft type, very light jets, into the
<br />GA mix. Hundreds of these airplanes are on order, with deliveries starting in 2007.
<br />Table 2-7: Aircraft Operations Forecast – FAA TAF
<br />YearCommercial GAMilitary Total
<br />Historic
<br />1997 28,25681,7222,665112,643
<br />1998 28,36178,0521,995108,408
<br />1999 29,37982,0171,944113,340
<br />32,60275,6322,263110,497
<br />2000
<br />2001 30,83670,1382,445103,419
<br />2002 24,50068,62099394,113
<br />2003 26,37363,34098990,702
<br />2004 28,16662,6261,00191,793
<br />2005 26,22561,0961,70489,025
<br />2006 24,77766,1851,81792,779
<br />Projection
<br />2011 25,73169,7901,76397,284
<br />2016 26,96173,8471,763102,571
<br />2026 29,65381,2161,763112,632
<br />CAGR 1997-2006 -1.45%-2.32%-4.17%-2.13%
<br />CAGR 2006-2026 0.90%1.03%N/A0.97%
<br />Source: FAA
<br />3.3 Aircraft Operations Forecast – Alternative Methodology: Aircraft Fleet
<br />This section presents an alternative methodology for projecting commercial aircraft operations at EUG,
<br />and blends that number with the TAF numbers for GA and military components. Under this methodology,
<br />the projected number of commercial aircraft operations is estimated by taking the projected enplanement
<br />numbers, and dividing by a factor that incorporates the average number of seats per airplane and the
<br />2-9
<br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update
<br />(February 2010)
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