Draft EUG Master Plan Update, February 2010

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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2 load factor. This calculation gives us the number of commercial departures, which we then double to account for an equal number of arrivals. The major assumptions related to the fleet (average seats) include data showing that the airlines operating at EUG (namely SkyWest and Horizon Air) are retiring the older, smaller turboprop aircraft, in favor of newer, larger regional prop and jet aircraft. Aircraft such as the Embraer 120 (30 seats) and the Dash 8-200 series (37 seats) will be replaced by regional jets in the 50-, 70-, and 90-seat ranges, as well as the Dash 8-Q400 (a 70-seat turboprop). Fleet changes by regional/commuter carriers Table 2-8: are anticipated to increase the average Operations Forecast – Fleet Size Assumptions number of seats per departure at the YearSeats Per Aircraft Airport. The assumptions made in Projection 507090TotalAverage determining the average number of 2011 40% 40% 20% 100% 66 seats per departure are shown in 2016 35% 45% 20% 100% 67 Table 2-8 , incorporating various 2026 25% 50% 25% 100% 70 percentages of 50-, 70-, and 90-seat Source: Mead & Hunt aircraft based on airline orders for such aircraft, and the anticipated utilization of them in the EUG market. These ranges represent the various general sizes of regional aircraft, although some specific models vary from the actual numbers used in our assumptions. Table 2-9 Historic load factors at the Airport for the past two years are shown in . Load factors have climbed to this level of just under 80%, and it is estimated that the airlines may squeeze a bit more capacity out of their seats (thus slightly higher load factors are assumed for the projection years). Historical and projected data for commercial aircraft operations at EUG are presented in Table 2-9. As shown in Table 2-9, based on the projected enplanements, average seats per departure, and load factor, scheduled passenger departures are expected to decrease from 12,389 in 2006 to 9,960 in 2026. Total operations (double the departures number) are projected to decrease from 24,777 in 2006 to 19,920 in 2026. 2-10 Eugene Airport Master Plan Update (February 2010)