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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2 <br />4.4 Based Aircraft Forecast – Method Comparison and Preference <br />Table2-15 Graph 2-3 <br />and show a comparison of based aircraft methodologies. As shown, the TAF <br />indicates growth in based aircraft from 178 in 2006 to 220 in 2026, while the socioeconomic method <br />produces a forecast indicating growth in based aircraft from 178 in 2006 to 232 in 2026. The preferred <br />methodology is the FAA Terminal Area Forecast. We believe the TAF for based aircraft is a good <br />reflection of national trends for general aviation growth. The socioeconomic methodology produces a <br />slightly higher based aircraft projection, but we are less confident in population growth being a strong <br />indication of buying airplanes. <br />Table 2-15: <br />Based Aircraft Forecast – Comparison <br />Socioeconomic <br />FAA TAF <br />Socio/TAF <br />Historic (Preferred) <br />Forecast (% Difference) <br />Year <br />Historic <br />1997 169 <br />1998 169 <br />1999 220 <br />2000 220 <br />2001 176 <br />2002 173 <br />2003 171 <br />2004 183 <br />2005 198 <br />2006 178 <br />Projection <br />2011 205 201-2% <br />2016 209 2111% <br />2026 220 2325% <br />Source: Mead & Hunt <br />2-16 <br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update <br />(February 2010) <br /> <br />