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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2 <br />4.3 <br />Based Aircraft Forecast – Socioeconomic Methodology <br />Socioeconomic forecasting considers aspects of EUG’s service market, such as population, employment <br />and income, and projects EUG activity as a ratio of one of these socioeconomic variables. For this Master <br />Plan Update, the ratio is developed by comparing historic activity to historic population. Socioeconomic <br />projections data was developed independent of this planning process by Woods & Poole, a census <br />information company. <br />Socioeconomic forecasting projects EUG based aircraft to increase from 178 in 2006, to 201 in 2011, to <br />211 in 2016, and to 232 to 2026, representing a 1.32 percent CAGR. EUG historical based aircraft rose <br />and fell. However, EUG’s service market historic population increases steadily. This difference between <br />the data sets may not provide the strongest correlation, but the method does provide an appropriate <br />Table 2-14 <br />forecast. shows projected based aircraft using the socioeconomic methodology. <br />Table 2-14: Based Aircraft Forecast – Socioeconomic <br />Methodology <br />Based <br />Based <br />YearPopulationAircraft <br />Aircraft <br />Per Capita <br />Historic <br />1997 169 597,7210.000283 <br />1998 169 601,9540.000281 <br />1999 220 603,8580.000364 <br />2000 220 605,0900.000364 <br />2001 176 606,4260.000290 <br />2002 173 612,1430.000283 <br />2003 171 617,6630.000277 <br />2004 183 620,2580.000295 <br />2005 198 626,9360.000316 <br />2006 178 634,4210.000281 <br />Projection <br />2011 201 664,4000.000303 <br />2016 211 695,9140.000303 <br />2026 232 763,5530.000303 <br />CAGR 1997-2006 0.58% <br />CAGR 2006-2026 1.32% <br />Source: Mead & Hunt <br />2-15 <br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update <br />(February 2010) <br /> <br />