|
FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2
<br />Table 2-18: Air Cargo Forecast – Socioeconomic
<br />EnplanedPer
<br />YearPopulation
<br />Cargo (lbs.) Capita
<br />Historic
<br />1997 2,974,533 597,7214.98
<br />1998 3,556,740 601,9545.91
<br />1999 3,974,273 603,8586.58
<br />2000 3,710,254 605,0906.13
<br />2001 2,231,811 606,4263.68
<br />2002 2,091,057 612,1433.42
<br />2003 2,563,256 617,6634.15
<br />2004 2,239,204 620,2583.61
<br />2005 2,385,207 626,9363.80
<br />2006 2,096,778 634,4213.31
<br />Projection
<br />2011 3,027,282 664,4004.56
<br />2016 3,170,874 695,9144.56
<br />2026 3,479,066 763,5534.56
<br />CAGR 1997-2006 -3.81%
<br />CAGR 2006-2026 2.56%
<br />Source: Mead & Hunt
<br />Table 2-19: Air Cargo Forecast – Comparison
<br />Socio-
<br />5.4 Air Cargo Forecast – Method
<br />YearHistoricBoeing economic
<br />Comparison and Preference
<br />Historic
<br />1997 2,974,533
<br />1998 3,556,740
<br />Table 2-19 Graph 2-4
<br />and present a comparison of
<br />1999 3,974,273
<br />projected air cargo activity based on the two different
<br />2000 3,710,254
<br />methodologies.
<br />2001 2,231,811
<br />2002 2,091,057
<br />The Boeing method gives the preferred forecast.
<br />2003 2,563,256
<br />Boeing’s information is considered extensive and well-
<br />2004 2,239,204
<br />based, and is generally accepted by the aviation industry.
<br />2005 2,385,207
<br />Although higher than the socioeconomic forecast, the
<br />2006 2,096,778
<br />Boeing air cargo projections are in line with what is
<br />Projection
<br />expected at EUG.This is further justified by improvements
<br />20112,538,8103,027,282
<br />being made at the Airport to support additional air cargo
<br />20163,068,4103,170,874
<br />activities more efficiently.
<br />20264,416,9573,479,066
<br />CAGR
<br />1997-2006-3.81%
<br />CAGR
<br />2006-2026 3.80% 2.56%
<br />Sources: The Boeing Company, Mead & Hunt
<br />2-20
<br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update
<br />(February 2010)
<br />
<br />
|