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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2
<br />Table 2-17
<br /> shows projections of cargo using the growth
<br />Table 2-17:
<br />rates estimated by The Boeing Company. Applying these
<br />Air Cargo Forecast – Boeing Trends
<br />growth rates to EUG, this projects an increase from
<br />Enplaned
<br />Annual
<br />2,096,778 lbs. in 2006 to 2,538,810 lbs. in 2011, to
<br />YearCargo
<br />Change
<br />3,068,410 lbs. in 2016, and to 4,416,957 lbs. in 2026,
<br />(lbs.)
<br />representing a 3.80 percent CAGR.
<br />Historic
<br />1997 2,974,533
<br />5.3 Air Cargo Forecast – Socioeconomic
<br />1998 3,556,740 19.6%
<br />Methodology
<br />1999 3,974,273 11.7%
<br />2000 3,710,254 -6.6%
<br />Projections of air cargo demand, using a socioeconomic
<br />2001 2,231,811 -39.8%
<br />methodology, considers aspects of the Eugene service
<br />2002 2,091,057 -6.3%
<br />market, such as population, employment and income, and
<br />2003 2,563,256 22.6%
<br />projects air cargo activity as a ratio of one of these
<br />2004 2,239,204 -12.6%
<br />socioeconomic variables. For this Master Plan Update, the
<br />2005 2,385,207 6.5%
<br />ratio is developed by comparing historic activity to historic
<br />2006 2,096,778 -12.1%
<br />population. Socioeconomic projections data was developed
<br />Projection
<br />independent of this planning process by Woods & Poole, a
<br />2011 2,538,810 3.9%
<br />census information company.
<br />2016 3,068,410 3.7%
<br />2026 4,416,957 3.7%
<br />Table 2-18
<br /> presents projections of air cargo activity using
<br />the socioeconomic methodology. Under this methodology,
<br />CAGR
<br />air cargo is projected to increase, from 2,096,778 lbs. in -3.81%
<br />1997-2006
<br />2006 to 3,027,282 lbs. in 2011, to 3,170,874 lbs. in 2016,
<br />CAGR
<br />and to 3,479,066 lbs. in 2026, representing a 2.56 percent
<br />2006-2026 3.80%
<br />CAGR.
<br />Sources: The Boeing Company, Mead & Hunt
<br />2-19
<br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update
<br />(February 2010)
<br />
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