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Eugene needed housing density and mix ECONorthwest Page <br />develop an inventory of vacant, partially vacant, mixed-use, and redevelopable <br />residential lands (ORS 197.296(3)). The residential lands inventory was prepared <br />by the Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). The methods and legal context for <br />the BLI are described in Appendix A. <br />2. Cities are required to have a 20-year coordinated <br />Population forecast. <br />population forecast (ORS 195.036). The population forecast can be developed and <br />coordinated by the county or it can be based on a safe harbor for population <br />forecasting (OAR 660-024-0030). This study uses the coordinated population <br />forecast for Eugene adopted by Lane County in June 2009. <br />3. Cities with a population of 25,000 or more are <br />Housing Needs Analysis. <br />required to comply with ORS 197.296 and must conduct an analysis of housing <br />need by housing type and density range to determine the number of needed <br />dwelling units and amount of land needed for each needed housing type in the <br />next 20 years (ORS 197.296(3)(b)). The statute defines needed housing types as <br />including (but not limited to): single-family detached, single-family attached, <br />multifamily (for rental and ownership), mobile or manufactured housing in <br />parks, manufactured housing on lots, and government assisted housing. Other <br />housing types may be considered in the housing needs analysis. The steps in the <br />housing needs analysis are: <br />A)The projection of needed housing units is <br /> Project housing units needed. <br />based on the growth in population from in the population forecast over <br />the 20-year period. The projection considers other factors, such as number <br />of people expected to live in group quarters, household size, housing mix, <br />and vacancy rates. These assumptions are typically based on historical <br />trends. <br />B) These trends <br /> Identify trends that may affect housing mix and density. <br />include relevant national, state, and local demographic and economic <br />trends and factors that may affect the 20-year projection of structure type <br />mix. Examples of these trends include: mortgage rates, homeownership <br />rates, or population growth and in-migration. The housing needs analysis <br />also considers demographic characteristics and housing trends that relate <br />to demand for different types of housing. Examples of these trends <br />include: regional and local trends in housing mix, the aging of the baby- <br />boomers, or household income and housing affordability. <br />C) Cities must <br /> Determine types of housing that are likely to be affordable. <br />consider the housing needs of all households, from low-income <br />households to affluent households. Cities are required to determine what <br />types of housing are likely to be affordable to new households based on <br />household income and housing costs. The assumption implicit in this <br />analysis is that some housing types are more affordable than others. For <br />PC AIS, p18 <br />