Ordinance No. 20585 - Laserfiche WebLink

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3.1 Step 1: Project number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years The first step is to project the number of new housing units needed during the planning period. This section describes the key assumptions and presents an estimate of new housing units needed in Eugene between 2012 and 2032. The key assumptions are based on the best available data and rely on safe harbor provisions, when applicable.8 Trends that may affect these assumptions and Eugene's housing need are described in Step 2 of the housing needs analysis. 3.1.1 Population A 20 -year population forecast is the foundation for estimating needed new dwelling units. On June 17, 2009, Lane County adopted a coordinated population forecast for the period from 2012 to 2032. This population forecast was then formally adopted into the Metro Plan.9 The forecast projects that population inside the Eugene UGB will grow from 177,775 people in 2010 to 219,059 people in 2035. The city sent a Notice of Proposed Urban Growth Boundary to the state in October of 2012 and stated that the City initially scheduled completion of its UGB review for 2012. Consistent with OAR 660-024-0040(2)(a), the planning period must commence on the date initially scheduled for final adoption, therefore, Eugene established its 20 -year planning period as beginning in 2012. Extrapolating the 2010 population to the 2012 population (using the adopted growth rate of 0.88% per year), Eugene's forecasted population for 2012 is 180,915 people.10 Extrapolating the 2010 population to the 2032 population using the same method shows that Eugene's population will 8 A safe harbor is an assumption that a city can use in a housing needs analysis that the State has said will satisfy the requirements of Goal 14. OAR 660-024 defined a safe harbor as "... an optional course of action that a local government may use to satisfy a requirement of Goal 14. Use of a safe harbor prescribed in this division will satisfy the requirement for which it is prescribed. A safe harbor is not the only way or necessarily the preferred way to comply with a requirement and it is not intended to interpret the requirement for any purpose other than applying a safe harbor within this division." 9 The State has now instituted a new program under which the Portland State University Population Research Center will prepare population forecasts for city planning purposes. The statute that adopted the new program included a "grandfather" clause that allows Eugene to continue to use the population forecast described above. Oregon laws 2013 c 574 § 3. 10 Eugene and Springfield adopted ordinances (Eugene Ordinance No. 20437) on October 13, 2009, which amended the Metro Plan to include forecasts of population growth for the years 2030 through 2035. Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 31