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3.5 Implications of changes in demographic <br />trends for future housing need <br />Sections 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4 presented information about factors that affect <br />housing choice: demographic and economic trends, as well as housing <br />affordability issues. This section assembles that information into an <br />assessment of the specific factors and their potential effect on Eugene's <br />housing needs over the planning period. <br />In the context of housing markets, past and current housing conditions <br />demonstrate the intersection of the forces of housing supply and demand at a <br />price of housing. Housing demand is derived from the characteristics of <br />households that create or are correlated with preferences for different types <br />of housing, and the ability to pay (the ability to exercise those preferences in <br />a housing market by purchasing or renting housing; in other words, <br />income or wealth). <br />One way to forecast housing demand is with detailed analysis of <br />demographic and socioeconomic variables. If one could measure housing <br />demand for each household, one might find that every household has a <br />unique set of preferences for housing. But no city-wide housing analysis <br />can expect to build from the preferences of individual households.32 Most <br />housing market analyses that get to this level of detail describe categories <br />of households on the assumption that households in each category will <br />share characteristics that will make their preferences similar. <br />The main demographic and socioeconomic variables that may affect <br />housing choice include: age of householder, household composition (e.g., <br />married couple with children or single -person household), size of <br />household, ethnicity, race, household income, or accumulated wealth <br />(e.g., real estate or stocks). The literature about housing markets identify <br />the following household characteristics as those most strongly correlated <br />with housing choice: age of the householder, size of the household, and <br />income.33 <br />32 Not only could one not measure the preferences of all existing households (now and in the <br />future); one could not know what specific households would be migrating to the region. <br />33 The research in this memorandum is based on numerous articles and sources of information <br />about housing, including: <br />M. Dieleman. Households and Housing. New Brunswick, NJ: Center for Urban Policy <br />Research. 1996. <br />Page 92 ECONorthwest Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis <br />