02/28/1977 Meeting - Laserfiche WebLink

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'--' and the resultant cost for public services. Phase 2 would develop scenarios which allow comparison of public costs involved in various geographic locations of future residential growth. Phase 3, based on the results of Phases 1 and 2, would develop specific policies aimed at assisting in public decisions concerning management of future residential growth occurring within the urban service boundary. These policies would be intended to strengthen similar existing adopted policy statements, but would be more specific in nature. He indicated the tentative conclusions based on the Phase 1 study completed to date were as follows: 1) Eugene's population will most likely grow with the rest of the nation, at least to the year 2000; 2) in the last few years, immigration has been an increasingly important element of population change in Eugene, while natural increases have declined in importance; 3) in addressing the issue of community expansion, Eugene must consider court decisions which have set a fairly firm direction for local actions appropriate in dealing with future growth. In general these decisions suggest that, lacking a clear legal precedent, growth avoidance could be open to legal challenge, while growth control or management systems may appropriately be considered and implemented by local government; 4) between 1970-76 a relative shift has occurred in Eugene1s population age cohorts. Data for these two years show a slight decline in the proportion of population less than 18 years old and a slight increase in the proportion of between 19 and 59 years of age; 5) although the supply is declining, Eugene continues to have an available supply of vacant land (about 3,000 acres) currently zoned for low-density residential use. This land can accommodate substantial new resi- dential development. Since 1972 the average price per acre of vacant residential land within the Eugene area has increased substantially, however, much of this price increase can be attributed to inflation; 7) the results of data analysis are consistent with the proposition that the urban service area is an effective growth management tool; 8) while actual program costs in the categories of the community safety and community leisure have increased substantially during the past six years, real per-capita costs for these services have increased at a much lower rate; 9) the majority of the city's arterial streets are accommodating traffic flows at or above level of service "C" providing for stable traffic conditions; 10) fringe area elementary schools tend to have higher enrollment to capacity ratios than schools located in the city center; 11) increases in major crimes experienced in Eugene from 1970-76 may be attributed to a variety of factors such as increase or changes in the city's population, increased tendency by victims to report certain kinds of crimes, decline in economic conditions within the area, and changes in the system of reporting criminal offenses; 12) Eugene1s population increase from 1971-75 may not have adversely affected the natural environment as measured by levels of suspended particulates; 13) although the city's proportion of area employment declined slightly between 1963 and 1970, data on numbers of employees by place of work suggest that this trend has been reversed since 1970. -- -- \t~ 2/28/77 --46 ( . e ~.