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Eugene -Springfield Area Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan <br />2. Hazard Descriptions <br />Table 2-2 Building Level of Collapse Potential for Eugene and Springfield <br />JL <br />Level of Collapse Potential <br />Low <1% <br />Moderate >1% <br />Hi h >10% <br />Ve Hi h 100% <br />Eugene <br />56 <br />52 <br />1 291 <br />0 <br />Springfield <br />28 <br />1 4 <br />3 <br />2 <br />Table 2-2. Source: DOGANII 2007 —Open File Report 07-02. Statewide Seismic Needs Assessment <br />UsingRapid Visual Assessment <br />More recently, Oregon published the Oregon Resilience Plan. Findings in the plan <br />suggest communities in the Willamette Valley can expect the following potential <br />impacts to critical service sectors following a CSZ incident: <br />2-3 Critical Service Impacts <br />ervice <br />city <br />tDrinking <br />Time to Restore <br />1 to 3 months <br />Fire Stations <br />2 to 4 months <br />Water <br />1 year <br />Critical Se EstinIM Time � <br />Sewer 1 month to 1 year <br />Top -priority Highways (partial restoration) <br />6 to 12 months <br />Healthcare Facilities 18 months <br />Table 2-3 Source: Oregon Resilience Plan, February 2013. <br />The Steering Committee ranked Eugene -Springfield's vulnerability to all <br />earthquakes (crustal, intraplate, and subduction earthquake incidents) as `high' <br />because more than 10% of the population would likely be impacted by each type of <br />earthquake. The probability of an earthquake occurring is difficult to determine. A <br />Cascadia Subduction Zone incident currently has a one in three chance of <br />happening in the next 50 years. For other faults capable of producing earthquakes <br />the odds of an incident occurring are 2% in the next 50 years. For these reasons, the <br />probability of an earthquake, regardless of the source, is moderate. Due to the large <br />geographical scale of an earthquake and limited resources to deal with such an <br />incident, Eugene and Springfield's capacity to respond to, and recover from, an <br />earthquake is low. <br />2.3.7 Risk Assessment <br />DOGAMI has developed two earthquake loss models based on the most likely <br />sources for an Oregon earthquake. One model uses a Cascadia Subduction Zone <br />(CSZ) earthquake, and the other uses a magnitude 6.5 arbitrary crustal earthquake. <br />Both models are based on HAZUS-MH software currently used by FEMA as a <br />means of determining potential losses from earthquakes. <br />2-18 January 2020 <br />