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AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS Based Aircraft Forecasts The FAA provides a forecast of based aircraft as part of the TAF, which is shown below in Table 2-8. This forecast shows a CAGR of 0.5 percent for single engine aircraft and 0.3 percent for jet aircraft. These growth rates are inconsistent with the national trends noted in the FAA Aerospace Forecast 2016-2036. That report’s forecast for the national general aviation fleet indicates that fixed wing piston aircraft will see a 0.6 percent annual average rate of decline, and turbine jet aircraft fleet is expected to increase at a 2.5 percent annual average growth rate. TABLE 2-8 2015 FAA TAF BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST Single Multi- Forecast YearJetHelicopterOther Total EngineEngine 2015152151540186 2020155161540190 2025159161540194 2035169161540204 Source: FAA 2015 TAF Report An understanding of based aircraft trends is difficult to determine as there is no formal wait list for hangars, and hangar rental is managed entirely by private parties. Because no one entity manages hangars at EUG, such as the airport administration or the fixed based operator, actual demand for T- hangar space is hard to quantify. The only gauge for demand is seen in applications to the airport for development of new hangars. In that regard, an increase in demand for new corporate hangars has been seen since the economy has rebounded from the 2008 recession. Evidence of this includes new corporate/executive type hangars being recently constructed in the East General Aviation Ramp area. Overall, it appears EUG is experiencing GA growth and declines that are in-line with national trends. That is, an increase in jet fleets and stagnate growth of single engine piston aircraft. However, the FAA is forecasting growth of light-sport aircraft at an average rate of 4.5 percent annually. With a light sport aircraft community and a manufacturer existing at EUG, it is expected that this segment of aircraft type will grow at EUG through the planning period. Additionally, in conversations with Lane Aviation Academy it was noted that the school is working on expanding their operations, which is expected to result in additional based training aircraft. With the lack of empirical data of historical based aircraft, a supplementary forecast to the TAF was developed. This forecast took the FAA’s projection for jet growth of 2.5 percent and applied it to EUG existing based jet aircraft. The TAF forecast for all other categories was validated and carried forward. Though the FAA indicated that nationally, single engine piston will decrease at a rate of 0.6 percent annually, the TAF forecast for EUG indicated that 0.5 percent growth more representative of the expected GA growth in training and experiential aircraft fleets. Table 2-9 summarizes the derivative based aircraft forecast. EUGENE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN 2-19