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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 16 <br />over the 2009 to 2019 period (from 20,300 students in 2009) and plans to build an <br />10 <br />additional approximately 1,500 bed spaces over the 2007 to 2017 period. <br />11 <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: The U.S. Census’ range of people in group <br /> <br />households (between 4.4% to 5.5% of population) is a reasonable range for this <br />assumption. There are two main factors that may affect the share of population <br />in group quarters: (1) the aging population and (2) growth in the University of <br />Oregon’s student body. <br />The aging of the population may result in an increase in share of seniors <br /> <br />o <br />living in group housing, especially nursing homes. Housing types for <br />the aging population range from congregate facilities (e.g., assisted <br />living) to age restricted active adult retirement communities, which <br />have a range of single-family and multifamily housing types. The age <br />and health of seniors impact the their hosing choice. Younger, <br />independent seniors have a preference for aging in place or choose <br />housing that allows them greater independence, such as age restricted <br />communities. As seniors age or their health deteriorates, housing <br />choices may include assisted living facilities and nursing homes. It is <br />difficult to estimate how much the aging of the population and greater <br />housing choice for seniors will affect the share of population in group <br />quarters. <br />Growth in the University of Oregon’s student population may result in <br /> <br />o <br />an increase in the share of population in group quarters. The affect of <br />growth in the student body at the University on the share of Eugene’s <br />population in group quarters will depend on actual growth in the <br />student body and whether the University builds as much student <br />housing as has been proposed. If the University builds as much housing <br />as proposed, it may result in an increase in population in group <br />quarters, which would result in a decrease in need for new housing <br />units. <br />? <br />CAC and TAC discussion: CAC and TAC have not discussed this assumption <br /> <br />in great enough depth to have suggestions for different assumptions. Some <br />CAC members have expressed concern that the assumption account for growth <br />in the student population at the University of Oregon and the University’s <br />plans for building additional dorm rooms. <br /> <br /> <br /> University of Oregon Draft Academic Plan, 1/12/09. Accessed on 2/9/2009 from: <br />10 <br />http://provost.uoregon.edu/files/provost/uploads/Academic_plan_1_12_09.pdf <br /> University of Oregon memorandum, Strategic Housing Plan Consultant’s Report, March 26, 2008. Accessed on <br />11 <br />2/9/2009 from: <br />http://uplan.uoregon.edu/projects/Project%20Sums%20for%20Web/HousingPlan/UO%20HSP%20FINAL%20MAI <br />N.pdf <br /> <br /> <br />