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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2
<br />along with rapid growth among low-cost carriers, and exceptional growth among regional carriers. Two
<br />legacy carriers have filed for bankruptcy protection and two have recently emerged from bankruptcy. The
<br />cost of jet fuel, which is typically an airline’s second largest expense, has doubled in price in the past six
<br />years, hampering the ability of the carriers to return to profitability or emerge from bankruptcy. Even with
<br />these difficult times for carriers, U.S. airports (especially large ones) continue to have the financial
<br />capability to provide safe and efficient air transportation and to raise the money needed to accommodate
<br />future growth in passenger and cargo demand. The year 2006 was considered an adjustment year for
<br />many airlines, with those in bankruptcy working diligently to reduce costs, realign routes, and craft their
<br />strategy to exit from bankruptcy. The FAA projects strong growth in aviation for the US, with total
<br />enplanements projected to increase from 738.6 million in 2005 to 1.07 billion in 2017, reflecting a 3.1%
<br />average growth rate.
<br />2.2 Enplanement Forecast – FAA Terminal Area Forecast
<br />The FAA monitors and projects activity levels at the nation’s
<br />Table 2-2:
<br />airports, and makes this data available through its’ Terminal
<br />Enplanement Forecast – FAA TAF
<br />Table 2-2
<br />Area Forecast (TAF). The FAA TAF, as shown in ,
<br />YearEnplanements
<br />projects EUG enplanements to increase from 360,258 in 2006,
<br />Historic
<br />to 384,483 in 2011, to 423,873 in 2016, and to 515,379 in 2026,
<br />1997 383,890
<br />representing a 1.81% CAGR.
<br />1998 370,850
<br />1999 355,992
<br />2.3 Enplanement Forecast – Market Share
<br />2000 376,522
<br />Methodology
<br />2001 364,049
<br />2002 312,735
<br />Market share forecasting considers EUG’s historic enplanements
<br />2003 301,339
<br />in relation to the nation’s enplanements, and projects EUG
<br />2004 347,672
<br />enplanements as a percentage of national enplanements.
<br />National enplanement projections come from the FAA.
<br />2005 360,049
<br />2006 360,258
<br />Table 2-3
<br /> presents an enplanement forecast using the market
<br />Projection
<br />share methodology. As shown, EUG enplanements are forecast
<br />2011 384,483
<br />to increase from 360,258 in 2006, to 412,873 in 2011, to 445,593
<br />2016 423,873
<br />in 2016, and to 557,736 in 2026, representing a 2.21% CAGR.
<br />2026 515,379
<br />Our assumptions for EUG’s market share in future years reflect a
<br />CAGR 1997-
<br />declining share of the U.S. market, as compared to the most
<br />2006 -0.70%
<br />recent year (2006). This position is based on an outlook of the
<br />CAGR 2006-
<br />commercial airline business, and the fact that Eugene will
<br />2026 1.81%
<br />continue to have challenges in this area. This outlook factors in
<br />Source: FAA
<br />potential commercial carrier consolidation, concentration of
<br />carrier operations to larger hub airports, and competition among airports. Accordingly, the market share
<br />1
<br />percentage is decreased for each forecast year. Because of the hard work and innovative techniques
<br />the City has employed in keeping good air service, this forecast is still positive on the whole due to overall
<br />
<br />1
<br />The market share assumption for 2011 is held constant at the 2006 level, reflecting stabilization of the industry. For years, 2016
<br />and 2026 were reduced slightly (0.0650% and 0.060%) reflecting small incremental reductions in projected market share based on
<br />the consultant’s experience and judgment.
<br />2-3
<br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update
<br />(February 2010)
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