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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2
<br />anticipated U.S. employment growth. Some of these techniques include development of the Airline
<br />Travel Bank™, which has helped launch new airline routes. The City is also aggressively working to
<br />reduce airline costs to help keep them at the Airport (paying down the terminal bond debt is one way they
<br />are doing this).
<br />Table 2-3: Enplanement Forecast – Market Share Methodology
<br />USEUG
<br />YearMarket Share
<br />Enplanements Enplanements
<br />Historic
<br />1997 577,845,747 383,890 0.0664%
<br />1998 590,417,191 370,850 0.0628%
<br />1999 610,924,928 355,992 0.0583%
<br />2000 561,493,888 376,522 0.0671%
<br />2001 546,310,418 364,049 0.0666%
<br />2002 485,921,321 312,735 0.0644%
<br />2003 482,838,537 301,339 0.0624%
<br />2004 502,567,046 347,672 0.0692%
<br />2005 523,143,810 360,049 0.0688%
<br />2006 517,912,372 360,258 0.0696%
<br />Projection
<br />2011 593,552,406 412,873 0.0696%
<br />2016 685,527,557 445,593 0.0650%
<br />2026 929,560,000 557,736 0.0600%
<br />CAGR 1997-2006 -1.21% -0.70%
<br />CAGR 2006-2026 2.97%2.21%
<br />Sources: FAA, Mead & Hunt.
<br />2.4 Enplanement Forecast – Socioeconomic Methodology
<br />Socioeconomic enplanement forecasting considers aspects of EUG’s service market, such as population,
<br />employment and income, and projects EUG activity as a ratio of one of these socioeconomic variables.
<br />For this Master Plan Update, the ratio is developed by comparing historic activity to historic population.
<br />Socioeconomic projections data was developed independent of this planning process by Woods & Poole,
<br />for Lane, Benton, Douglas and Linn Counties.
<br />Table 2-4
<br /> presents an enplanement forecast using the socioeconomic methodology, assuming trips per
<br />capita will hold steady at the 10-year historical average of 0.5772. Under this methodology, EUG
<br />enplanements are projected to increase from 360,258 in 2006, to 383,483 in 2011, to 401,673 in 2016,
<br />and to 440,713 in 2026, representing a 1.01% CAGR.
<br />2-4
<br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update
<br />(February 2010)
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