Draft EUG Master Plan Update, February 2010

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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2 Table 2-4: Enplanement Forecast – Socioeconomic YearEnplanementsPopulationPer Capita Historic 1997 383,890 597,721 0.6423 1998 370,850 601,954 0.6161 1999 355,992 603,858 0.5895 2000 376,522 605,090 0.6223 2001 364,049 606,426 0.6003 2002 312,735 612,143 0.5109 2003 301,339 617,663 0.4879 2004 347,672 620,258 0.5605 2005 360,049 626,936 0.5743 2006 360,258 634,421 0.5679 Projection 2011 383,483 664,400 0.5772 2016 401,673 695,914 0.5772 2026 440,713 763,553 0.5772 CAGR 1997-2006 -0.70% CAGR 2006-2026 1.01% Sources: Woods & Poole, Mead & Hunt 2.5 Enplanement Forecast – Method Comparison and Preference Table 2-5 Graph 2-1 and present a comparison of the passenger enplanement forecasts using the various methods. The market share method projects an increase of 2.21% CAGR. The socioeconomic method projects the least increase of 1.01% CAGR. The TAF increase of 1.81% CAGR is between the two. Table 2-5 also shows the difference in the two new forecasts compared with the TAF. As shown, the Market Share forecast exceeds the TAF by 7% in the first five years, by 5% in the first 10 years, and by 8% in the 20-year horizon. The Socioeconomic forecast is nearly the same as the TAF in the first five years, 5% below the TAF in the first 10 years, and 14% below the TAF over the 20-year period. A linear trend method, which projects future enplanements based on historic enplanements, was considered but did not produce a reliable trend to project and therefore was not used. The reason for the unreliability of forecasts using this method is that the recent history has been volatile in the airline/airport businesses, largely due to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Following those attacks, all airports were closed for a brief period and it took many years to restore public confidence in the aviation system. Many airports, including Eugene, were affected by these events in terms of reduced traffic. These methods can be refined, and other methods exist. However, the methods which were used produce forecasts which are sound and attainable, and are reliable and sufficient from which to select a preferred method. 2-5 Eugene Airport Master Plan Update (February 2010)