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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2 <br />The market share method gives the preferred forecast. Even though it is the most aggressive of the three <br />forecasts, it reflects more closely a combination of positive national trends in the commercial aviation <br />business, and the fact that the City will continue to work aggressively to provide the community with good <br />local air service. <br />Table 2-5: Enplanement Forecast – Comparison <br />Market Share/ <br />Socio-economic/ <br />MarketTAFSocio- <br />YearHistoric FAA TAFTAF <br />Share(% of economic <br />(% of Difference) <br />Difference) <br />Historic <br />1997 383,890 <br />1998 370,850 <br />1999 355,992 <br />2000 376,522 <br />2001 364,049 <br />2002 312,735 <br />2003 301,339 <br />2004 347,672 <br />2005 360,049 <br />2006 360,258 <br />Projection <br />2011 (base year + 5) 384,483412,8737%383,483 0% <br />2016 (base year + 10) 423,873445,5935%401,673 -5% <br />2026 (base year + 20) 515,379557,7368%440,713 -14% <br />CAGR <br />1997-2006 -0.70% <br />CAGR <br />2006-2026 1.81%2.21%1.01% <br />Sources: FAA, Mead & Hunt <br />2-6 <br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update <br />(February 2010) <br /> <br />