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FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND CHAPTER 2
<br />Table 2-9:
<br />Operations Forecast – Alternative Methodology: Aircraft Fleet
<br />Average
<br />SeatsLoad
<br />YearEnplanements Departures Operations
<br />PerFactor
<br />Aircraft
<br />Historic
<br />1997 383,890 14,128 28,256
<br />1998 370,850 14,181 28,361
<br />1999 355,992 14,690 29,379
<br />2000 376,522 16,301 32,602
<br />2001 364,049 15,418 30,836
<br />2002 312,735 12,250 24,500
<br />2003 301,339 13,187 26,373
<br />2004 347,672 14,083 28,166
<br />2005 360,049 36 77% 13,113 26,225
<br />2006 360,258 37 79% 12,389 24,777
<br />Projection
<br />2011 412,873 66 70% 8,937 17,874
<br />2016 445,593 67 75% 8,868 17,736
<br />2026 557,736 70 80% 9,960 19,920
<br />CAGR
<br />1997 – 2006 -0.70% -1.45%
<br />CAGR
<br />2006 – 2006 2.21%-1.09%
<br />Sources: Mead & Hunt, USDOT T-100 data
<br />3.4 Operations Forecast – Method Comparison and Preference
<br />Table 2-10
<br /> presents a comparison of operations forecasts for the two methodologies. As shown, the TAF
<br />is more aggressive, with operations projected to increase from 92,779 in 2006 to 112,632 in 2026.
<br />Operations under the Alternative Methodology are projected to increase from 92,779 in 2006 to 102,179
<br />in 2026. The alternative methodology is recommended since it incorporates some additional data into the
<br />analysis that relates to aircraft size changes that are highly probable. The preferred forecast assumes
<br />that, with this assumption more people will be moved on fewer flights.
<br />2-11
<br />Eugene Airport Master Plan Update
<br />(February 2010)
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