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manufacturing-based economy, which was why Oregon felt the recent recession more deeply <br />than other states. Oregon employment rates were improving slowly. He noted the high <br />unemployment rate affecting Portland relative to the remainder of the state. He did not expect <br />huge economic growth from the recovery. <br /> <br />Mr. Potiowsky reported that the wood products industry had recently been experiencing some <br />growth. However, he expected the sector to decline over time. High tech would outperform the <br />United States overall, but the industry was maturing in Oregon and efficiencies and outsourcing <br />would have an effect on employment growth in this area. He noted that per capita income in <br />Oregon had declined since 1982 with the loss of well-paying timber-related jobs. High tech had <br />not filled the gap. <br /> <br />Mr. ?otiowsky noted risk factors affecting the economic forecast, which included congressional <br />action, energy prices, the stock market, and state and local governments. <br /> <br />Mr. Potiowsky shared information regarding population growth in Oregon and Lane County, the <br />annual unemployment rate, population and nonfarm employment growth, educational attainment <br />in Oregon compared with the United States average, distribution of households by income <br />categories, and average annual employment for the years 1990-2003. <br /> <br />Mr. Potiowsky reviewed the top ten growing occupations and top ten declining occupations in <br />the area. <br /> <br />Mr. Potiowsky anticipated that over time, high tech jobs would decline. He thought little could <br />be done about outsourcing but did not think its effect would be too harmful. He said the local <br />area had the ability to be a center for retraining, and the University of Oregon was an asset in that <br />area. Retraining would be very important if the State was to be competitive. <br /> <br />Mr. Wanichek asked what sectors people would be retrained in. Mr. Potiowsky said that when <br />high tech manufacturing in Oregon first began, it was based on proprietary and unique <br />knowledge that could command high prices. Now such technology was at the level of <br />agricultural commodity status, and once something reached that status, companies must begin to <br />reduce costs, which led to outsourcing. The sectors to be retrained would likely be those in basic <br />manufacturing. Oregon's competitive edge in the future would be those who could design and <br />innovate and communicate and its quality of life. <br /> <br />Mr. Potiowsky emphasized the importance of creating an attractive business environment. <br />Portland's quality of life did attract people. For example, Oregon, particularly the Portland <br />metro area, was a net gainer of those in the age group 25-35, and most metropolitan areas were <br />losing that group, and frequently they were the new entrepreneurs. Ms. Pierce asked how Lane <br />County was doing in terms of attracting that age group. Mr. Potiowsky believed the county was <br />doing well. <br /> <br />MINUTES--Mayor's Committee on Economic Development March 8, 2004 Page 2 <br /> <br /> <br />